Geopolitical threats and the reversal of equity size premiums




Rafi, Md Khaled Hossain; Ali Syed Riaz, Mahmood

PublisherSpringer Nature

2026

 Journal of Asset Management

14

27

1470-8272

1479-179X

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z

https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/516015560



We examine how geopolitical threats affect U.S. equity portfolios across market capitalizations using daily returns from 1995 to 2024. Large and prime-cap portfolios generate significantly positive returns during heightened geopolitical tensions and yield 0.52% risk-adjusted excess returns during high-threat periods. Small and mid-cap portfolios show no response. Markov regime-switching analysis reveals that this effect intensifies eightfold during high-volatility states. Geopolitical threats represent unique uncertainty distinct from market volatility or economic policy uncertainty. Effects occur contemporaneously with no lagged adjustment and indicate rapid information processing. Results remain robust across alternative specifications and out-of-sample tests. Implementable trading strategies that capitalize on these differential responses can generate substantial economic value. Our findings extend safe haven asset literature to intra-asset class dynamics and demonstrate how firm size moderates geopolitical risk responses with direct implications for strategic asset allocation during global uncertainty.


Rafi appreciates the financial support from the OP Research Group Foundation. Open Access funding provided by University of Turku (including Turku University Central Hospital).


Last updated on 26/03/2026 09:07:32 AM