A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Geopolitical threats and the reversal of equity size premiums




AuthorsRafi, Md Khaled Hossain; Ali Syed Riaz, Mahmood

PublisherSpringer Nature

Publication year2026

Journal: Journal of Asset Management

Article number14

Volume27

Issue2

ISSN1470-8272

eISSN1479-179X

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z

Publication's open availability at the time of reportingOpen Access

Publication channel's open availability Partially Open Access publication channel

Web address https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/516015560

Self-archived copy's licenceCC BY

Self-archived copy's versionPublisher`s PDF


Abstract

We examine how geopolitical threats affect U.S. equity portfolios across market capitalizations using daily returns from 1995 to 2024. Large and prime-cap portfolios generate significantly positive returns during heightened geopolitical tensions and yield 0.52% risk-adjusted excess returns during high-threat periods. Small and mid-cap portfolios show no response. Markov regime-switching analysis reveals that this effect intensifies eightfold during high-volatility states. Geopolitical threats represent unique uncertainty distinct from market volatility or economic policy uncertainty. Effects occur contemporaneously with no lagged adjustment and indicate rapid information processing. Results remain robust across alternative specifications and out-of-sample tests. Implementable trading strategies that capitalize on these differential responses can generate substantial economic value. Our findings extend safe haven asset literature to intra-asset class dynamics and demonstrate how firm size moderates geopolitical risk responses with direct implications for strategic asset allocation during global uncertainty.


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Funding information in the publication
Rafi appreciates the financial support from the OP Research Group Foundation. Open Access funding provided by University of Turku (including Turku University Central Hospital).


Last updated on 13/05/2026 09:24:47 AM