A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Geopolitical threats and the reversal of equity size premiums
Authors: Rafi, Md Khaled Hossain; Ali Syed Riaz, Mahmood
Publisher: Springer Nature
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Journal of Asset Management
Article number: 14
Volume: 27
Issue: 2
ISSN: 1470-8272
eISSN: 1479-179X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Partially Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/516015560
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
We examine how geopolitical threats affect U.S. equity portfolios across market capitalizations using daily returns from 1995 to 2024. Large and prime-cap portfolios generate significantly positive returns during heightened geopolitical tensions and yield 0.52% risk-adjusted excess returns during high-threat periods. Small and mid-cap portfolios show no response. Markov regime-switching analysis reveals that this effect intensifies eightfold during high-volatility states. Geopolitical threats represent unique uncertainty distinct from market volatility or economic policy uncertainty. Effects occur contemporaneously with no lagged adjustment and indicate rapid information processing. Results remain robust across alternative specifications and out-of-sample tests. Implementable trading strategies that capitalize on these differential responses can generate substantial economic value. Our findings extend safe haven asset literature to intra-asset class dynamics and demonstrate how firm size moderates geopolitical risk responses with direct implications for strategic asset allocation during global uncertainty.
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Funding information in the publication:
Rafi appreciates the financial support from the OP Research Group Foundation. Open Access funding provided by University of Turku (including Turku University Central Hospital).