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Geopolitical threats and the reversal of equity size premiums




TekijätRafi, Md Khaled Hossain; Ali Syed Riaz, Mahmood

KustantajaSpringer Nature

Julkaisuvuosi2026

Lehti: Journal of Asset Management

Artikkelin numero14

Vuosikerta27

ISSN1470-8272

eISSN1479-179X

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z

Julkaisun avoimuus kirjaamishetkelläAvoimesti saatavilla

Julkaisukanavan avoimuus Osittain avoin julkaisukanava

Verkko-osoitehttps://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/516015560

Rinnakkaistallenteen lisenssiCC BY

Rinnakkaistallennetun julkaisun versioKustantajan versio


Tiivistelmä

We examine how geopolitical threats affect U.S. equity portfolios across market capitalizations using daily returns from 1995 to 2024. Large and prime-cap portfolios generate significantly positive returns during heightened geopolitical tensions and yield 0.52% risk-adjusted excess returns during high-threat periods. Small and mid-cap portfolios show no response. Markov regime-switching analysis reveals that this effect intensifies eightfold during high-volatility states. Geopolitical threats represent unique uncertainty distinct from market volatility or economic policy uncertainty. Effects occur contemporaneously with no lagged adjustment and indicate rapid information processing. Results remain robust across alternative specifications and out-of-sample tests. Implementable trading strategies that capitalize on these differential responses can generate substantial economic value. Our findings extend safe haven asset literature to intra-asset class dynamics and demonstrate how firm size moderates geopolitical risk responses with direct implications for strategic asset allocation during global uncertainty.


Ladattava julkaisu

This is an electronic reprint of the original article.
This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Please cite the original version.




Julkaisussa olevat rahoitustiedot
Rafi appreciates the financial support from the OP Research Group Foundation. Open Access funding provided by University of Turku (including Turku University Central Hospital).


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