A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Geopolitical threats and the reversal of equity size premiums
Tekijät: Rafi, Md Khaled Hossain; Ali Syed Riaz, Mahmood
Kustantaja: Springer Nature
Julkaisuvuosi: 2026
Lehti: Journal of Asset Management
Artikkelin numero: 14
Vuosikerta: 27
ISSN: 1470-8272
eISSN: 1479-179X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z
Julkaisun avoimuus kirjaamishetkellä: Avoimesti saatavilla
Julkaisukanavan avoimuus : Osittain avoin julkaisukanava
Verkko-osoite: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-025-00441-z
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/516015560
Rinnakkaistallenteen lisenssi: CC BY
Rinnakkaistallennetun julkaisun versio: Kustantajan versio
We examine how geopolitical threats affect U.S. equity portfolios across market capitalizations using daily returns from 1995 to 2024. Large and prime-cap portfolios generate significantly positive returns during heightened geopolitical tensions and yield 0.52% risk-adjusted excess returns during high-threat periods. Small and mid-cap portfolios show no response. Markov regime-switching analysis reveals that this effect intensifies eightfold during high-volatility states. Geopolitical threats represent unique uncertainty distinct from market volatility or economic policy uncertainty. Effects occur contemporaneously with no lagged adjustment and indicate rapid information processing. Results remain robust across alternative specifications and out-of-sample tests. Implementable trading strategies that capitalize on these differential responses can generate substantial economic value. Our findings extend safe haven asset literature to intra-asset class dynamics and demonstrate how firm size moderates geopolitical risk responses with direct implications for strategic asset allocation during global uncertainty.
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |
Julkaisussa olevat rahoitustiedot:
Rafi appreciates the financial support from the OP Research Group Foundation. Open Access funding provided by University of Turku (including Turku University Central Hospital).