Boosting nonlinear predictability of macroeconomic time series




Kauppi Heikki, Virtanen Timo

PublisherElsevier

2021

International Journal of Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting

37

1

151

170

0169-2070

1872-8200

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.03.008

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/48817701



We apply the boosting estimation method in order to investigate to what extent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinear predictability that comes from their own history. Our results indicate that the U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinear predictability than previous studies have found. On average, the most favorable out-of-sample performance is obtained via a two-stage procedure, where a conventional linear prediction model is fitted first and the boosting technique is applied to build a nonlinear model for its residuals.


Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 16:07