A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Boosting nonlinear predictability of macroeconomic time series




AuthorsKauppi Heikki, Virtanen Timo

PublisherElsevier

Publication year2021

JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting

Journal name in sourceInternational Journal of Forecasting

Volume37

Issue1

First page 151

Last page170

ISSN0169-2070

eISSN1872-8200

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.03.008

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/48817701


Abstract

We apply the boosting estimation method in order to investigate to what extent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinear predictability that comes from their own history. Our results indicate that the U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinear predictability than previous studies have found. On average, the most favorable out-of-sample performance is obtained via a two-stage procedure, where a conventional linear prediction model is fitted first and the boosting technique is applied to build a nonlinear model for its residuals.


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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 16:07