A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Boosting nonlinear predictability of macroeconomic time series
Authors: Kauppi Heikki, Virtanen Timo
Publisher: Elsevier
Publication year: 2021
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Journal name in source: International Journal of Forecasting
Volume: 37
Issue: 1
First page : 151
Last page: 170
ISSN: 0169-2070
eISSN: 1872-8200
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.03.008
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/48817701
We apply the boosting estimation method in order to investigate to what extent and at what horizons macroeconomic time series have nonlinear predictability that comes from their own history. Our results indicate that the U.S. macroeconomic time series have more exploitable nonlinear predictability than previous studies have found. On average, the most favorable out-of-sample performance is obtained via a two-stage procedure, where a conventional linear prediction model is fitted first and the boosting technique is applied to build a nonlinear model for its residuals.
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