N-factorial scenarios : A systems-theoretical approach to scenario-planning




Roth, Steffen; Kiškienė, Austė; Gaizauskiene, Dovile; Kaivo-oja Jari

PublisherWiley

2024

Systems Research and Behavioral Science

1092-7026

1099-1743

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3120

https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3120

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/477000167



Scenarios are among the most popular techniques for managing the uncertainty and complexity of the future. Even the more sophisticated scenario designs, however, often reduce the future to a narrow set of typically only two key factors that are arranged into a four-square matrix representing four distinct yet interrelated scenarios. Consequently, scenarios have been criticised for being simplistic or reductionist by design. In this article, we address these criticisms by proposing a basic design for n-factorial scenarios. Following a short discussion of the procedures and limitations of classical scenario design, we draw on the example of a standard 2 × 2 matrix titled ‘Four Scenarios for the Digital Transformation’ to illustrate the limitations of the standard approach and demonstrate the potential of a digital approach to scenario building. We conclude that standard scenario planning is often characterised by a systematic omission of potentially critical scenarios, which our proposed digital approach can detect and map out.



Last updated on 2025-27-01 at 20:03