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N-factorial scenarios : A systems-theoretical approach to scenario-planning




TekijätRoth, Steffen; Kiškienė, Austė; Gaizauskiene, Dovile; Kaivo-oja Jari

KustantajaWiley

Julkaisuvuosi2024

Lehti: Systems Research and Behavioral Science

ISSN1092-7026

eISSN1099-1743

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3120

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Julkaisukanavan avoimuus Osittain avoin julkaisukanava

Verkko-osoitehttps://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3120

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/477000167


Tiivistelmä

Scenarios are among the most popular techniques for managing the uncertainty and complexity of the future. Even the more sophisticated scenario designs, however, often reduce the future to a narrow set of typically only two key factors that are arranged into a four-square matrix representing four distinct yet interrelated scenarios. Consequently, scenarios have been criticised for being simplistic or reductionist by design. In this article, we address these criticisms by proposing a basic design for n-factorial scenarios. Following a short discussion of the procedures and limitations of classical scenario design, we draw on the example of a standard 2 × 2 matrix titled ‘Four Scenarios for the Digital Transformation’ to illustrate the limitations of the standard approach and demonstrate the potential of a digital approach to scenario building. We conclude that standard scenario planning is often characterised by a systematic omission of potentially critical scenarios, which our proposed digital approach can detect and map out.


Ladattava julkaisu

This is an electronic reprint of the original article.
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