A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

N-factorial scenarios : A systems-theoretical approach to scenario-planning




AuthorsRoth, Steffen; Kiškienė, Austė; Gaizauskiene, Dovile; Kaivo-oja Jari

PublisherWiley

Publication year2024

Journal: Systems Research and Behavioral Science

ISSN1092-7026

eISSN1099-1743

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3120

Publication's open availability at the time of reportingNo Open Access

Publication channel's open availability Partially Open Access publication channel

Web address https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.3120

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/477000167

Self-archived copy's versionFinal draft


Abstract

Scenarios are among the most popular techniques for managing the uncertainty and complexity of the future. Even the more sophisticated scenario designs, however, often reduce the future to a narrow set of typically only two key factors that are arranged into a four-square matrix representing four distinct yet interrelated scenarios. Consequently, scenarios have been criticised for being simplistic or reductionist by design. In this article, we address these criticisms by proposing a basic design for n-factorial scenarios. Following a short discussion of the procedures and limitations of classical scenario design, we draw on the example of a standard 2 × 2 matrix titled ‘Four Scenarios for the Digital Transformation’ to illustrate the limitations of the standard approach and demonstrate the potential of a digital approach to scenario building. We conclude that standard scenario planning is often characterised by a systematic omission of potentially critical scenarios, which our proposed digital approach can detect and map out.


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