The Stability and Growth Pact three decades later




Hukkinen Juhana, Viren Matti

PublisherSUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum

Vienna

2023

SUERF Policy Brief

564

https://www.suerf.org/suerf-policy-brief/65115/the-stability-and-growth-pact-three-decades-later

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/380772655



After 30 years of life with the Stability and Growth pact, it is surely worth asking whether the basic elements of the treaty still make sense and whether the proposed changes in the treaty would make a difference. We show that the deficit criterion is based on overly optimistic assumptions on economic growth that lowers debt ratios. If economic growth settles down to current rates, a much more stringent deficit level is required. Hence, attempts to allow more flexibility to this criterion will also be counterproductive.After 30 years of life with the Stability and Growth pact, it is surely worth asking whether the basic elements of the treaty still make sense and whether the proposed changes in the treaty would make a difference. We show that the deficit criterion is based on overly optimistic assumptions on economic growth that lowers debt ratios. If economic growth settles down to current rates, a much more stringent deficit level is required. Hence, attempts to allow more flexibility to this criterion will also be counterproductive.


Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 13:04