D1 Artikkeli ammattilehdessä

The Stability and Growth Pact three decades later




TekijätHukkinen Juhana, Viren Matti

KustantajaSUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum

KustannuspaikkaVienna

Julkaisuvuosi2023

JournalSUERF Policy Brief

Numero564

Verkko-osoitehttps://www.suerf.org/suerf-policy-brief/65115/the-stability-and-growth-pact-three-decades-later

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/380772655


Tiivistelmä

After 30 years of life with the Stability and Growth pact, it is surely worth asking whether the basic elements of the treaty still make sense and whether the proposed changes in the treaty would make a difference. We show that the deficit criterion is based on overly optimistic assumptions on economic growth that lowers debt ratios. If economic growth settles down to current rates, a much more stringent deficit level is required. Hence, attempts to allow more flexibility to this criterion will also be counterproductive.After 30 years of life with the Stability and Growth pact, it is surely worth asking whether the basic elements of the treaty still make sense and whether the proposed changes in the treaty would make a difference. We show that the deficit criterion is based on overly optimistic assumptions on economic growth that lowers debt ratios. If economic growth settles down to current rates, a much more stringent deficit level is required. Hence, attempts to allow more flexibility to this criterion will also be counterproductive.


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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 13:04