D1 Article in a professional journal
The Stability and Growth Pact three decades later
Authors: Hukkinen Juhana, Viren Matti
Publisher: SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum
Publishing place: Vienna
Publication year: 2023
Journal: SUERF Policy Brief
Issue: 564
Web address : https://www.suerf.org/suerf-policy-brief/65115/the-stability-and-growth-pact-three-decades-later(external)
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/380772655(external)
After 30 years of life with the Stability and Growth pact, it is surely worth asking whether the basic elements of the treaty still make sense and whether the proposed changes in the treaty would make a difference. We show that the deficit criterion is based on overly optimistic assumptions on economic growth that lowers debt ratios. If economic growth settles down to current rates, a much more stringent deficit level is required. Hence, attempts to allow more flexibility to this criterion will also be counterproductive.After 30 years of life with the Stability and Growth pact, it is surely worth asking whether the basic elements of the treaty still make sense and whether the proposed changes in the treaty would make a difference. We show that the deficit criterion is based on overly optimistic assumptions on economic growth that lowers debt ratios. If economic growth settles down to current rates, a much more stringent deficit level is required. Hence, attempts to allow more flexibility to this criterion will also be counterproductive.
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