The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model



: Papaioannou Athanasios, Vainio Rami, Raukunen Osku, Jiggens Piers, Aran Angels, Dierckxsens Mark, Mallios Sotirios A, Paassilta Miikka, Anastasiadis Anastasios

Publisher: EDP SCIENCES S A

: 2022

: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

: JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE

: J SPACE WEATHER SPAC

:  24

: 12

: 24

: 2115-7251

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022019

: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/176001426


The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed), and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described, and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational advanced solar particle event casting system (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP advanced warning system (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run-on-demand functionality.

Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 20:44