A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model
Authors: Papaioannou Athanasios, Vainio Rami, Raukunen Osku, Jiggens Piers, Aran Angels, Dierckxsens Mark, Mallios Sotirios A, Paassilta Miikka, Anastasiadis Anastasios
Publisher: EDP SCIENCES S A
Publication year: 2022
Journal: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
Journal name in source: JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE
Journal acronym: J SPACE WEATHER SPAC
Article number: 24
Volume: 12
Number of pages: 24
ISSN: 2115-7251
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022019
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/176001426
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed), and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described, and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational advanced solar particle event casting system (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP advanced warning system (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run-on-demand functionality.
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