A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
The probabilistic solar particle event forecasting (PROSPER) model
Tekijät: Papaioannou Athanasios, Vainio Rami, Raukunen Osku, Jiggens Piers, Aran Angels, Dierckxsens Mark, Mallios Sotirios A, Paassilta Miikka, Anastasiadis Anastasios
Kustantaja: EDP SCIENCES S A
Julkaisuvuosi: 2022
Journal: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE
Lehden akronyymi: J SPACE WEATHER SPAC
Artikkelin numero: 24
Vuosikerta: 12
Sivujen määrä: 24
ISSN: 2115-7251
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022019
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/176001426
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e., E > 10, > 30, and > 100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed), and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described, and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model has been incorporated into the new operational advanced solar particle event casting system (ASPECS) tool to provide nowcasting (short term forecasting) of SEP events as part of ESA's future SEP advanced warning system (SAWS). ASPECS also provides the capability to interrogate PROSPER for historical cases via a run-on-demand functionality.
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |  |
