A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Discovering data‐driven microbial growth models with symbolic regression; 
Authors: Sun, T. Anthony; Kičiatovas, Dovydas; Aapalampi, Inga‐Katariina; Kuosmanen, Teemu; Hiltunen, Teppo; Mustonen, Ville
Publisher: Wiley
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Methods in Ecology and Evolution
Volume: 17
Issue: 7
First page : 1951
Last page: 2252
eISSN: 2041-210X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70335
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.70335
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/527158123
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
1. Connecting mathematical models with empirically measured microbial growth has remained challenging, as numerous competing models based on different theoretical approaches can fit observations. Therefore, we develop a method to automatically propose growth models from microbial data alone. We validate this approach using an available dataset of E. coli grown on known resources, and study 14 species across various concentrations of a rich medium.
2. The inherently interpretable approach of symbolic regression infers explicit dynamical models directly from growth data. Using symbolic regression natively, does not favour biologically interpretable models, but we find cumulative population gain to be a more informative machine learning feature than population size.
3. Random Forest machine learning allows us to relate this finding to the approximation of a constant-rate per capita resource consumption. This suggests that the area under the growth curve (AUC) measured in routine experiments provides information on the effective resource dynamics governing microbial growth. Finally, we use theoretical insights to inform the symbolic regression algorithm and favour biologically interpretable models.
4. Overall, we found that balancing between data fit, parsimony and biological relevance favoured both the simplest, linear approximation and models based on Monod dynamics, with either one or two underlying resources. Therefore, our approach to read growth laws off of microbial batch cultures provides insights on data-driven modelling.
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Funding information in the publication:
The authors wish to thank Frédéric Guillaume, the reviewers and associate editors, for comments on successive versions of the manuscript, as well as CSC—IT Center for Science, Finland, for computational resources. This work was in part supported by Research Council of Finland (345829, 346128 and 364234) to Ville Mustonen and Teppo Hiltunen. Open access publishing facilitated by Helsingin yliopisto, as part of the Wiley - FinELib agreement.