A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Linking species local trends from assemblage monitoring to global extinction risk; 
Authors: Antão, Laura H.; Moyes, Faye; Dornelas, Maria; Blowes, Shane, A.; McGill, Brian J.; Chow, Cher F. Y.; Fontrodona-Eslava, Ada; Magurran, Anne E.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Nature Communications
Article number: 5071
Volume: 17
eISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74132-7
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74132-7
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/526991182
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
While biodiversity is being reshaped across the globe, extinction risk assessments are lacking for most species, and a major challenge remains in understanding whether global threat status aligns with local population trends. Here, we assess whether population temporal prevalence trends are consistent with a species’ global extinction risk, using over 60,000 populations of 2362 species across 978 marine and terrestrial assemblages (sampled for at least 20 years, mostly from temperate regions). We assign each population to one of five categories of temporal prevalence dynamics, and retrieve each species’ extinction risk from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Fewer than 10% of local populations show consistent increasing or decreasing prevalence over time, with most exhibiting random patterns of temporal change, especially marine populations. Overall, higher extinction risk is associated with a higher frequency of decreasing local prevalence, and vice-versa for increasing prevalence, against a backdrop of complex links between extinction risk and local temporal dynamics. Our results suggest that directional changes in species local prevalence could be harbingers of future changes in global threat status, and highlight how leveraging assemblage monitoring data can aid conservation efforts and extinction assessments.
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Funding information in the publication:
European Commission (SEAwise 10002799) (F.M.), Research Council of Finland (grants 340280 and 361416/372215) (L.H.A.), European Research Council (AdG BioTIME 250189 and PoC BioCHANGE 72744) (A.E.M., M.D.), European Research Council (Cons CoralINT, GA 101044975) (M.D.), Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2019-402) (A.E.M., M.D.), Leverhulme Trust through the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity (RC-2018-021) (M.D.), European Research Council (AdG MetaCHANGE 101098020) (S.A.B.), German Research Foundation (FZT 118) (SAB), FSBI PhD Studentship (A.F.E.), USDA Hatch grant MAFES #1011538 and NSF EPSCOR Track II grant #2019470 (B.J.M.), NSF EPSCOR Track II grant #2019470 (N.J.G.), A.E.M., M.D., S.A.B., funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
