A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Linking species local trends from assemblage monitoring to global extinction risk; 
Tekijät: Antão, Laura H.; Moyes, Faye; Dornelas, Maria; Blowes, Shane, A.; McGill, Brian J.; Chow, Cher F. Y.; Fontrodona-Eslava, Ada; Magurran, Anne E.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.
Kustantaja: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Julkaisuvuosi: 2026
Lehti: Nature Communications
Artikkelin numero: 5071
Vuosikerta: 17
eISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74132-7
Julkaisun avoimuus kirjaamishetkellä: Avoimesti saatavilla
Julkaisukanavan avoimuus : Kokonaan avoin julkaisukanava
Verkko-osoite: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74132-7
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/526991182
Rinnakkaistallenteen lisenssi: CC BY
Rinnakkaistallennetun julkaisun versio: Kustantajan versio
While biodiversity is being reshaped across the globe, extinction risk assessments are lacking for most species, and a major challenge remains in understanding whether global threat status aligns with local population trends. Here, we assess whether population temporal prevalence trends are consistent with a species’ global extinction risk, using over 60,000 populations of 2362 species across 978 marine and terrestrial assemblages (sampled for at least 20 years, mostly from temperate regions). We assign each population to one of five categories of temporal prevalence dynamics, and retrieve each species’ extinction risk from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Fewer than 10% of local populations show consistent increasing or decreasing prevalence over time, with most exhibiting random patterns of temporal change, especially marine populations. Overall, higher extinction risk is associated with a higher frequency of decreasing local prevalence, and vice-versa for increasing prevalence, against a backdrop of complex links between extinction risk and local temporal dynamics. Our results suggest that directional changes in species local prevalence could be harbingers of future changes in global threat status, and highlight how leveraging assemblage monitoring data can aid conservation efforts and extinction assessments.
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |  |
Julkaisussa olevat rahoitustiedot:
European Commission (SEAwise 10002799) (F.M.), Research Council of Finland (grants 340280 and 361416/372215) (L.H.A.), European Research Council (AdG BioTIME 250189 and PoC BioCHANGE 72744) (A.E.M., M.D.), European Research Council (Cons CoralINT, GA 101044975) (M.D.), Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2019-402) (A.E.M., M.D.), Leverhulme Trust through the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity (RC-2018-021) (M.D.), European Research Council (AdG MetaCHANGE 101098020) (S.A.B.), German Research Foundation (FZT 118) (SAB), FSBI PhD Studentship (A.F.E.), USDA Hatch grant MAFES #1011538 and NSF EPSCOR Track II grant #2019470 (B.J.M.), NSF EPSCOR Track II grant #2019470 (N.J.G.), A.E.M., M.D., S.A.B., funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
