Exchange rate narratives;




Cormun, Vito; Ristolainen, Kim

PublisherElsevier

2026

 Journal of International Money and Finance

103627

167

0261-5606

1873-0639

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103627

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103627

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/526590934



We combine Wall Street Journal news, topic modeling, and generative AI to extract economic narratives associated with U.S. dollar fluctuations. Using data since the late 1970s, we isolate six narratives spanning fiscal and monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitical tensions, and technological change. Adding these narratives to standard exchange rate regressions substantially improves the explanatory power of macroeconomic aggregates. The narratives are consistent with shifts in investor attention across exchange rate drivers—a mechanism that generates time-varying loadings on macroeconomic aggregates and helps account for the exchange rate disconnect puzzle.




Big Dataexchange ratesMacroeconomic newsNarrative retrieval ScapegoatTextual analysis

Last updated on 03/08/2026 10:02:42 AM