A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Exchange rate narratives;




AuthorsCormun, Vito; Ristolainen, Kim

PublisherElsevier

Publication year2026

Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance

Article number103627

Volume167

ISSN0261-5606

eISSN1873-0639

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103627

Publication's open availability at the time of reportingOpen Access

Publication channel's open availability Partially Open Access publication channel

Web address https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103627

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/526590934

Self-archived copy's licenceCC BY NC ND

Self-archived copy's versionPublisher`s PDF


Abstract

We combine Wall Street Journal news, topic modeling, and generative AI to extract economic narratives associated with U.S. dollar fluctuations. Using data since the late 1970s, we isolate six narratives spanning fiscal and monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitical tensions, and technological change. Adding these narratives to standard exchange rate regressions substantially improves the explanatory power of macroeconomic aggregates. The narratives are consistent with shifts in investor attention across exchange rate drivers—a mechanism that generates time-varying loadings on macroeconomic aggregates and helps account for the exchange rate disconnect puzzle.



Keywords:
Big Dataexchange ratesMacroeconomic newsNarrative retrieval ScapegoatTextual analysis

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Last updated on 03/08/2026 10:02:42 AM