Large-scale atmospheric circulation and its impact on the Baltic Sea region: controls, predictability and consequences




Börgel, Florian; Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel; Barghorn, Leonie; Borchert, Leonard; Cahill, Bronwyn; Dutheil, Cyril; Esters, Leonie; Falarz, Małgorzata; Filipsson, Helena L.; Gröger, Matthias; Hänninen, Jari; Hieronymus, Magnus; Jakobson, Erko; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Kuliński, Karol; Liblik, Taavi; Meier, H. E. Markus; Messori, Gabriele; Naumov, Lev; Neumann, Thomas; Post, Piia; Rehder, Gregor; Rutgersson, Anna; Voelker, Georg Sebastian

PublisherCopernicus GmbH

2026

 Earth System Dynamics

17

3

415

450

2190-4979

2190-4987

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/523229793



Large-scale Euro-Atlantic variability, shaped by the polar jet stream, governs weather and climate in the Baltic Sea region, thereby impacting the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This review synthesizes how key atmospheric circulation features and modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, atmospheric blocking and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, influence the Baltic Sea region. By integrating evidence from the published literature, observational datasets, and both global and regional climate model simulations, we assess established as well as potential linkages to key climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, and storm activity, across temporal scales ranging from synoptic events to multidecadal variability. We then evaluate how these climate controls cascade into ecosystem-relevant processes, namely oxygen dynamics, primary productivity and ocean acidification. Although physical links are already established, the pathways connecting large-scale atmospheric patterns to biogeochemistry are still poorly constrained, partly because dedicated field studies and targeted model experiments are limited. We outline priority research needs to enhance near-term predictability and reduce uncertainty in future projections for the Baltic Sea.


Lev Naumov is paid through funding by the grant number 67KIA4017A, belonging to the SEAGUARD, funded by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUNKN) on the basis of a resolution of the German Bundestag.


Last updated on 08/05/2026 08:13:34 AM