A2 Refereed review article in a scientific journal
Large-scale atmospheric circulation and its impact on the Baltic Sea region: controls, predictability and consequences
Authors: Börgel, Florian; Ruvalcaba Baroni, Itzel; Barghorn, Leonie; Borchert, Leonard; Cahill, Bronwyn; Dutheil, Cyril; Esters, Leonie; Falarz, Małgorzata; Filipsson, Helena L.; Gröger, Matthias; Hänninen, Jari; Hieronymus, Magnus; Jakobson, Erko; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Kuliński, Karol; Liblik, Taavi; Meier, H. E. Markus; Messori, Gabriele; Naumov, Lev; Neumann, Thomas; Post, Piia; Rehder, Gregor; Rutgersson, Anna; Voelker, Georg Sebastian
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Earth System Dynamics
Volume: 17
Issue: 3
First page : 415
Last page: 450
ISSN: 2190-4979
eISSN: 2190-4987
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/523229793
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
Large-scale Euro-Atlantic variability, shaped by the polar jet stream, governs weather and climate in the Baltic Sea region, thereby impacting the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This review synthesizes how key atmospheric circulation features and modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, atmospheric blocking and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, influence the Baltic Sea region. By integrating evidence from the published literature, observational datasets, and both global and regional climate model simulations, we assess established as well as potential linkages to key climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, and storm activity, across temporal scales ranging from synoptic events to multidecadal variability. We then evaluate how these climate controls cascade into ecosystem-relevant processes, namely oxygen dynamics, primary productivity and ocean acidification. Although physical links are already established, the pathways connecting large-scale atmospheric patterns to biogeochemistry are still poorly constrained, partly because dedicated field studies and targeted model experiments are limited. We outline priority research needs to enhance near-term predictability and reduce uncertainty in future projections for the Baltic Sea.
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Funding information in the publication:
Lev Naumov is paid through funding by the grant number 67KIA4017A, belonging to the SEAGUARD, funded by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Action, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUNKN) on the basis of a resolution of the German Bundestag.
