A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Governance Problems: Risks of Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence




AuthorsOjanen, Atte

PublisherWiley

Publication year2024

JournalFutures & Foresight Science

Article numbere203

Volume6

eISSN2573-5152

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.203

Web address https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.203

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/470925170


Abstract

Comparative approaches are rarely utilized in futures studies despite the distinctive nature of different policy problems. Issues like climate change, infrastructure investments, and governance of emerging technology are frequently grouped under the umbrella of the “long-term problems” without adequate consideration for their distinct spatial and temporal attributes. To address this research gap, this paper presents a framework to systematically compare long-term policy problems, such as the risks of climate change and artificial intelligence (AI). I conduct a comparative analysis of the risks of climate change and AI—both widely regarded as pivotal questions of our time—focusing on how they differ across eight attributes that affect their governance: scientific certainty, spatiality, temporality, linearity, path dependence, accountability, capacity to address and the costs involved. The findings suggest that climate change involves a more evident intergenerational conflict between generations than risks of AI and might therefore be a more challenging long-term governance problem. Yet, both problems risk triggering irreversible lock-in effects, specifically in extreme scenarios such as crossing climate tipping points or misaligned advanced AI systems. Mitigating these uncertain lock-in effects requires precautionary governance measures, highlighting the potential of comparative approaches at the intersection of foresight and policy analysis.


Downloadable publication

This is an electronic reprint of the original article.
This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Please cite the original version.




Funding information in the publication
This paper was supported by the KT4D and TANDEM projects, which have received funding from the European Union's Horizon Europe program under grant agreements No 101094302 and No 101069653, respectively


Last updated on 2025-27-01 at 19:23