A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Comparative Analysis of Long-Term Governance Problems: Risks of Climate Change and Artificial Intelligence
Authors: Ojanen, Atte
Publisher: Wiley
Publication year: 2024
Journal: Futures & Foresight Science
Article number: e203
Volume: 6
eISSN: 2573-5152
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.203
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.203
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/470925170
Comparative approaches are rarely utilized in futures studies despite the distinctive nature of different policy problems. Issues like climate change, infrastructure investments, and governance of emerging technology are frequently grouped under the umbrella of the “long-term problems” without adequate consideration for their distinct spatial and temporal attributes. To address this research gap, this paper presents a framework to systematically compare long-term policy problems, such as the risks of climate change and artificial intelligence (AI). I conduct a comparative analysis of the risks of climate change and AI—both widely regarded as pivotal questions of our time—focusing on how they differ across eight attributes that affect their governance: scientific certainty, spatiality, temporality, linearity, path dependence, accountability, capacity to address and the costs involved. The findings suggest that climate change involves a more evident intergenerational conflict between generations than risks of AI and might therefore be a more challenging long-term governance problem. Yet, both problems risk triggering irreversible lock-in effects, specifically in extreme scenarios such as crossing climate tipping points or misaligned advanced AI systems. Mitigating these uncertain lock-in effects requires precautionary governance measures, highlighting the potential of comparative approaches at the intersection of foresight and policy analysis.
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Funding information in the publication:
This paper was supported by the KT4D and TANDEM projects, which have received funding from the European Union's Horizon Europe program under grant agreements No 101094302 and No 101069653, respectively