A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Spatio-temporal modeling of co-dynamics of smallpox, measles, and pertussis in pre-healthcare Finland
Tekijät: Pasanen, Tiia-Maria; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri; Ketola, Tarmo
Kustantaja: PeerJ Inc.
Julkaisuvuosi: 2024
Journal: PeerJ
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: PeerJ
Lehden akronyymi: PeerJ
Artikkelin numero: e18155
Vuosikerta: 12
ISSN: 2167-8359
eISSN: 2167-8359
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18155
Verkko-osoite: http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18155
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/458350102
Infections are known to interact as previous infections may have an effect on risk of succumbing to a new infection. The co-dynamics can be mediated by immunosuppression or modulation, shared environmental or climatic drivers, or competition for susceptible hosts. Research and statistical methods in epidemiology often concentrate on large pooled datasets, or high quality data from cities, leaving rural areas underrepresented in literature. Data considering rural populations are typically sparse and scarce, especially in the case of historical data sources, which may introduce considerable methodological challenges. In order to overcome many obstacles due to such data, we present a general Bayesian spatio-temporal model for disease co-dynamics. Applying the proposed model on historical (1820-1850) Finnish parish register data, we study the spread of infectious diseases in pre-healthcare Finland. We observe that measles, pertussis, and smallpox exhibit positively correlated dynamics, which could be attributed to immunosuppressive effects or, for example, the general weakening of the population due to recurring infections or poor nutritional conditions.
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Julkaisussa olevat rahoitustiedot:
Tiia-Maria Pasanen was supported by the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Emil Aaltonen Foundation and the Research Council of Finland grant 331817. Jouni Helske was supported by the Research Council of Finland grants 331817 and 355153. Tarmo Ketola was supported by the Research Council of Finland grant 278751. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
