A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Spatio-temporal modeling of co-dynamics of smallpox, measles, and pertussis in pre-healthcare Finland
Authors: Pasanen, Tiia-Maria; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri; Ketola, Tarmo
Publisher: PeerJ Inc.
Publication year: 2024
Journal: PeerJ
Journal name in source: PeerJ
Journal acronym: PeerJ
Article number: e18155
Volume: 12
ISSN: 2167-8359
eISSN: 2167-8359
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18155
Web address : http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18155
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/458350102
Infections are known to interact as previous infections may have an effect on risk of succumbing to a new infection. The co-dynamics can be mediated by immunosuppression or modulation, shared environmental or climatic drivers, or competition for susceptible hosts. Research and statistical methods in epidemiology often concentrate on large pooled datasets, or high quality data from cities, leaving rural areas underrepresented in literature. Data considering rural populations are typically sparse and scarce, especially in the case of historical data sources, which may introduce considerable methodological challenges. In order to overcome many obstacles due to such data, we present a general Bayesian spatio-temporal model for disease co-dynamics. Applying the proposed model on historical (1820-1850) Finnish parish register data, we study the spread of infectious diseases in pre-healthcare Finland. We observe that measles, pertussis, and smallpox exhibit positively correlated dynamics, which could be attributed to immunosuppressive effects or, for example, the general weakening of the population due to recurring infections or poor nutritional conditions.
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Funding information in the publication:
Tiia-Maria Pasanen was supported by the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Emil Aaltonen Foundation and the Research Council of Finland grant 331817. Jouni Helske was supported by the Research Council of Finland grants 331817 and 355153. Tarmo Ketola was supported by the Research Council of Finland grant 278751. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
