A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008
Tekijät: Kaufmann RK, Kauppi H, Mann ML, Stock JH
Kustantaja: NATL ACAD SCIENCES
Julkaisuvuosi: 2011
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,Microprocessors and Microsystems
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Lehden akronyymi: P NATL ACAD SCI USA
Numero sarjassa: 29
Vuosikerta: 108
Numero: 29
Aloitussivu: 11790
Lopetussivu: 11793
Sivujen määrä: 4
ISSN: 0027-8424
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102467108
Verkko-osoite: http://ojs.tsv.fi/index.php/fennia
Tiivistelmä
Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.
Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.
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