A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008
Authors: Kaufmann RK, Kauppi H, Mann ML, Stock JH
Publisher: NATL ACAD SCIENCES
Publication year: 2011
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,Microprocessors and Microsystems
Journal name in source: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Journal acronym: P NATL ACAD SCI USA
Number in series: 29
Volume: 108
Issue: 29
First page : 11790
Last page: 11793
Number of pages: 4
ISSN: 0027-8424
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102467108
Web address : http://ojs.tsv.fi/index.php/fennia
Abstract
Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.
Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.
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