Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises




Timo Virtanen, Eero Tölö, Matti Virén, Katja Taipalus

PublisherEuropean Systemic Risk Board

Frankfurt am Main

2017

ESRB Working Paper Series

45

978-92-95081-93-2

2467-0677

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp45.en.pdf?6e33535c55c168228c66359b57b7d329

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/28904713



In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of rel-evant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evi-dence for performance of unit-root-based early warning systems in ex-ante prediction of finan-cial crises in 15 EU countries over the past three decades. We find especially high performance for time series that are explicitly related to debt, which issue signals a few years in advance of a crisis. Combining signals from multiple time series further improves the predictions. Our results suggest an early warning tool based on unit root methods provides a valuable accessory in financial stability supervision.


Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 21:49