D4 Published development or research report or study
Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises
Authors: Timo Virtanen, Eero Tölö, Matti Virén, Katja Taipalus
Publisher: European Systemic Risk Board
Publishing place: Frankfurt am Main
Publication year: 2017
Series title: ESRB Working Paper Series
Number in series: 45
eISBN: 978-92-95081-93-2
ISSN: 2467-0677
Web address : https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp45.en.pdf?6e33535c55c168228c66359b57b7d329(external)
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/28904713(external)
In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of rel-evant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evi-dence for performance of unit-root-based early warning systems in ex-ante prediction of finan-cial crises in 15 EU countries over the past three decades. We find especially high performance for time series that are explicitly related to debt, which issue signals a few years in advance of a crisis. Combining signals from multiple time series further improves the predictions. Our results suggest an early warning tool based on unit root methods provides a valuable accessory in financial stability supervision.
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