A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines




Ristolainen Kim, Roukka Tomi, Nyberg Henri

PublisherElsevier

2024

Journal of Financial Stability

70

101209

1878-0962

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/182205632



We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.


Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 20:45