A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines




AuthorsRistolainen Kim, Roukka Tomi, Nyberg Henri

PublisherElsevier

Publication year2024

JournalJournal of Financial Stability

Volume70

First page 101209

eISSN1878-0962

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209

Web address https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/182205632


Abstract

We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.


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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 20:45