A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines
Authors: Ristolainen Kim, Roukka Tomi, Nyberg Henri
Publisher: Elsevier
Publication year: 2024
Journal: Journal of Financial Stability
Volume: 70
First page : 101209
eISSN: 1878-0962
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/182205632
We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.
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