A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647-1850

: Voutilainen Miikka, Helske Jouni, Hogmander Harri

Publisher: SPRINGER

: 2020

: Demography

: DEMOGRAPHY

: 57

: 1171

: 1192

: 22

: 0070-3370

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1

This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland's population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.