A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647-1850
Authors: Voutilainen Miikka, Helske Jouni, Hogmander Harri
Publisher: SPRINGER
Publication year: 2020
Journal: Demography
Journal name in source: DEMOGRAPHY
Journal acronym: DEMOGRAPHY
Volume: 57
First page : 1171
Last page: 1192
Number of pages: 22
ISSN: 0070-3370
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
Abstract
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland's population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland's population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
Keywords:
Bayesian estimation, Early modern era, population growth, population history
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