A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647-1850
Tekijät: Voutilainen Miikka, Helske Jouni, Hogmander Harri
Kustantaja: SPRINGER
Julkaisuvuosi: 2020
Lehti: Demography
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: DEMOGRAPHY
Lehden akronyymi: DEMOGRAPHY
Vuosikerta: 57
Aloitussivu: 1171
Lopetussivu: 1192
Sivujen määrä: 22
ISSN: 0070-3370
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
Tiivistelmä
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland's population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland's population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
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