Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach
: Kraemer Robert, Lehtimäki Jonne
Publisher: Springer
: 2023
: International Tax and Public Finance
: 1573-6970
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-023-09791-z
: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-023-09791-z
: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/180585587
Public debt and its development are key questions of public sector economics and fiscal policy. This paper uses the Synthetic Control Method to study how different large-scale steps of European integration and the establishment of the EU fiscal framework have affected government debt in EU Member States. The results point to a notable debt-restricting effect of EU membership and the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact for a large majority of the studied country groupings as well as for individual countries. Outside of a few individual countries, the actual government debt levels are substantially lower than in the synthetic alternatives.