A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Countercyclical and time-varying reward to risk and the equity premium
Authors: Antell Jan, Vaihekoski Mika
Publisher: Elsevier
Publication year: 2023
Journal: Research in International Business and Finance
Journal acronym: RIBAF
Article number: 102017
Volume: 66
eISSN: 0275-5319
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102017
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102017
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/179840453
We study whether the equity premium is related to volatility or variance, whether the reward to market risk is positive, and whether it behaves in a counter-cyclical fashion. Using APARCH models for the conditional market risk, we compare the traditional and the new testing approach of Antell and Vaihekoski (2019) on the monthly US equity premium from 1928 to 2018. The results from the new approach give stronger support for the pricing of volatility rather than variance and for positive reward to market risk. The support for timevarying and countercyclical reward to risk coefficient is smaller than previously thought.
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