Ebola epidemic model with dynamic population and memory




Ndaïrou Faïçal, Khalighi Moein, Lahti Leo

PublisherElsevier Ltd

2023

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

113361

170

1873-2887

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113361

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113361

https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/179183435



The recent outbreaks of Ebola encourage researchers to develop mathematical models for simulating the dynamics of Ebola transmission. We continue the study of the models focusing on those with a variable population. Hence, this paper presents a compartmental model consisting of 8-dimensional nonlinear differential equations with a dynamic population and investigates its basic reproduction number. Moreover, a dimensionless model is introduced for numerical analysis, thus proving the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the threshold condition, known as a basic reproduction number, is less than one. Finally, we use a fractional differential form of the model to sufficiently fit long time-series data of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone retrieved from the World Health Organization, and the numerical results demonstrate the performance of the model.


Last updated on 2025-27-03 at 21:53