A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä

Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator




TekijätSergio Fabrizio, Tavecchia Giacomo, Blas Julio, Tanferna Alessandro, Hiraldo Fernando, Korpimäki Erkki, Beissinger Steven R.

KustantajaNATURE PORTFOLIO

Julkaisuvuosi2022

JournalNature Communications

Lehden akronyymiNAT COMMUN

Artikkelin numero 5517

Vuosikerta13

Sivujen määrä10

eISSN2041-1723

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33011-7

Verkko-osoitehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33011-7

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/176797576


Tiivistelmä

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts or hurricanes, with substantial impacts on human and wildlife communities. Extreme events can affect individuals through two pathways: by altering the fitness of adults encountering a current extreme, and by affecting the development of individuals born during a natal extreme, a largely overlooked process. Here, we show that the impact of natal drought on an avian predator overrode the effect of current drought for decades, so that individuals born during drought were disadvantaged throughout life. Incorporation of natal effects caused a 40% decline in forecasted population size and a 21% shortening of time to extinction. These results imply that climate change may erode populations more quickly and severely than currently appreciated, suggesting the urgency to incorporate "penalties" for natal legacies in the analytical toolkit of impact forecasts. Similar double impacts may apply to other drivers of global change.


Ladattava julkaisu

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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 23:11