A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator
Authors: Sergio Fabrizio, Tavecchia Giacomo, Blas Julio, Tanferna Alessandro, Hiraldo Fernando, Korpimäki Erkki, Beissinger Steven R.
Publisher: NATURE PORTFOLIO
Publication year: 2022
Journal: Nature Communications
Journal acronym: NAT COMMUN
Article number: 5517
Volume: 13
Number of pages: 10
eISSN: 2041-1723
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33011-7
Web address : https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33011-7
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/176797576
Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts or hurricanes, with substantial impacts on human and wildlife communities. Extreme events can affect individuals through two pathways: by altering the fitness of adults encountering a current extreme, and by affecting the development of individuals born during a natal extreme, a largely overlooked process. Here, we show that the impact of natal drought on an avian predator overrode the effect of current drought for decades, so that individuals born during drought were disadvantaged throughout life. Incorporation of natal effects caused a 40% decline in forecasted population size and a 21% shortening of time to extinction. These results imply that climate change may erode populations more quickly and severely than currently appreciated, suggesting the urgency to incorporate "penalties" for natal legacies in the analytical toolkit of impact forecasts. Similar double impacts may apply to other drivers of global change.
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