Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era
: Ikezumi Yukie, Knudsen Mikkel Stein, Kaivo-oja Jari
: Lorna Uden, I-Hsien Ting, Birgit Feldmann
: International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organizations
: Cham
: 2022
: Communications in Computer and Information Science
: Knowledge Management in Organisations: 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Hagen, Germany, July 11–14, 2022, Proceedings
: Communications in Computer and Information Science
: 1593
: 334
: 346
: 978-3-031-07919-1
: 978-3-031-07920-7
: 1865-0929
: 1865-0937
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26
: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26
The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.