A4 Refereed article in a conference publication
Plausible 6G Futures: Scenarios for the Future MNO Business Environment in the 6G Era
Authors: Ikezumi Yukie, Knudsen Mikkel Stein, Kaivo-oja Jari
Editors: Lorna Uden, I-Hsien Ting, Birgit Feldmann
Conference name: International Conference on Knowledge Management in Organizations
Publishing place: Cham
Publication year: 2022
Journal: Communications in Computer and Information Science
Book title : Knowledge Management in Organisations: 16th International Conference, KMO 2022, Hagen, Germany, July 11–14, 2022, Proceedings
Series title: Communications in Computer and Information Science
Number in series: 1593
First page : 334
Last page: 346
ISBN: 978-3-031-07919-1
eISBN: 978-3-031-07920-7
ISSN: 1865-0929
eISSN: 1865-0937
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26
Web address : https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-07920-7_26
The paper explores plausible scenarios for the business environment of mobile network operators (MNOs) after the eventual rollout of 6G. The 6G era is characterized by multi-dimensional uncertainty, as neither the technology nor the business landscape is yet in place. However, futures research methods and scenarios help alleviate uncertainty and provide futures knowledge about plausible developments. Using environmental scanning and expert interviews, the paper presents four scenarios for MNOs based on the assumed rate of change for the sector (transformative vs. conservative) and the market success of the incumbents (continued rise vs. fall). Underneath the scenarios is a shared base of assumptions for which the experts converged; these assumptions of changing market configurations provide a useful synopsis of current expert consensus for 6G business futures.