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Knowledge, Trust or Perspectives? A Causal Mediation Analysis of How a Citizens' Jury Affected Voting Intentions in the General Public




TekijätChristensen Henrik Serup, Leino Mikko, Setälä Maija, Strandberg Kim

KustantajaWILEY

Julkaisuvuosi2022

JournalSwiss Political Science Review (SPSR)

Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimiSWISS POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW

Lehden akronyymiSWISS POLIT SCI REV

Sivujen määrä20

ISSN1424-7755

eISSN1662-6370

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12513

Verkko-osoitehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/spsr.12513

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/175008917


Tiivistelmä
Previous studies suggest that information from deliberative mini-publics helps voters make informed and reflected judgements and act accordingly. Despite a growing body of literature, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This study examines three causal mechanisms for affecting voting intentions in a referendum: 1) factual knowledge, 2) trusted information proxy, or 3) perspective-taking of the opinions of others. The data come from a referendum on a municipal merger in Korsholm, Finland. In a field experiment, a statement from a citizens' jury on the merger was released to a treatment group and differences in opinions and voting intentions were compared with a control group that did not receive the statement. Causal mediation analysis examines which of the three causal mechanisms best explains how the jury's statement affected intended voting behaviour. We find that reading the statement increased factual knowledge, trust, and perspective-taking, but only increased factual knowledge affected voting intentions.

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Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 12:08