A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Knowledge, Trust or Perspectives? A Causal Mediation Analysis of How a Citizens' Jury Affected Voting Intentions in the General Public
Authors: Christensen Henrik Serup, Leino Mikko, Setälä Maija, Strandberg Kim
Publisher: WILEY
Publication year: 2022
Journal: Swiss Political Science Review (SPSR)
Journal name in source: SWISS POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW
Journal acronym: SWISS POLIT SCI REV
Number of pages: 20
ISSN: 1424-7755
eISSN: 1662-6370
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12513
Web address : https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/spsr.12513
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/175008917
Previous studies suggest that information from deliberative mini-publics helps voters make informed and reflected judgements and act accordingly. Despite a growing body of literature, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This study examines three causal mechanisms for affecting voting intentions in a referendum: 1) factual knowledge, 2) trusted information proxy, or 3) perspective-taking of the opinions of others. The data come from a referendum on a municipal merger in Korsholm, Finland. In a field experiment, a statement from a citizens' jury on the merger was released to a treatment group and differences in opinions and voting intentions were compared with a control group that did not receive the statement. Causal mediation analysis examines which of the three causal mechanisms best explains how the jury's statement affected intended voting behaviour. We find that reading the statement increased factual knowledge, trust, and perspective-taking, but only increased factual knowledge affected voting intentions.
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