Jouni Helske
PhD (Statistics)
jouni.helske@utu.fi +358 29 450 3114 +358 50 461 1304 Assistentinkatu 7 Turku Office: 453 ORCID identifier: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7130-793X |
Bayesian statistics; causal inference; state space models; hidden Markov models; longitudinal data; computational statistics; spatiotemporal models, probabilistic programming; statistical software development, R.
CAUSALTIME project, funded by Research Council of Finland.
I am an Academy Research Fellow in Statistics at the University of Turku. I lead the CAUSALTIME project where we develop new Bayesian methods for estimation of short- and long-term causal effects based on complex panel data, using for example dynamic multivariate panel models, hidden Markov models, and synthetic control methods. I also do applied statistics in social science, but also in fields such as epidemiology.
I was previously a PI of the Statistics subproject of the PREDLIFE Consortium at University of Jyväskylä.
I am also an associate editor of the R Journal and rOpenSci statistical software initiative, and an open science ambassador of Open Science Community Turku.
I completed my PhD in statistics at the University of Jyväskylä, Finland, in 2015. Following my PhD I worked as a Postdoctoral Researcher at University of Jyväskylä, at Linköping University, at University of Jyväskylä (again), and Senior Researcher at University of Jyväskylä, before joining the University of Turku.
My current research focuses on developing Bayesian methods for panel data, especially in the context of causal inference, emphasising the importance of clearly communicating the uncertainties of the obtained results. More broadly, my research interests are related to various areas of computational statistics, and statistical software development.
Teaching in 2025–2026:
Sequence Analysis and Markovian Modelling
- Adaptation to paternal leave policies in Finnish municipalities: changing gender norms and cross-border policy legacies (2025)
- European Societies
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Adaptation to paternal leave policies in Finnish municipalities: changing gender norms and cross-border policy legacies (2024) Pasanen, Tiia-Maria; Helske, Satu; Giuliani, Giovanni Amerigo; Chapman, Simon; Helske, Jouni
(D4 Published development or research report or study ) - A Modern Approach to Transition Analysis and Process Mining with Markov Models in Education (2024) Learning Analytics Methods and Tutorials Helske, Jouni; Helske, Satu; Saqr, Mohammed; López-Pernas, Sonsoles; Murphy, Keefe
(A3 Refereed book chapter or chapter in a compilation book) - dynamite: An R Package for Dynamic Multivariate Panel Models (2024) Tkka, Santtu; Helske, Jouni
(D4 Published development or research report or study ) - Education, family complexity and heterogeneous causal effects of parental separation (2024) Helske Satu; Erola Jani; Helske Jouni
(D4 Published development or research report or study ) - Estimating causal effects from panel data with dynamic multivariate panel models (2024)
- Advances in Life Course Research
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - From Sequences to Variables: Rethinking the Relationship between Sequences and Outcomes (2024)
- Sociological Methodology
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Heterogeneous workplace peer effects in fathers’ parental leave uptake in Finland (2024) Helske, Satu; Helske, Jouni; Chapman, Simon; Kotimäki, Sanni; Salin, Milla; Tikka, Santtu
(D4 Published development or research report or study ) - Hidden Markov modelling of spatio-temporal dynamics of measles in 1750-1850 Finland (2024) Pasanen, Tiia-Maria; Helske, Jouni; Ketola, Tarmo
(D4 Published development or research report or study ) - Price Optimization Combining Conjoint Data and Purchase History: A Causal Modeling Approach (2024)
- Observational Studies
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Spatio-temporal modeling of co-dynamics of smallpox, measles, and pertussis in pre-healthcare Finland (2024)
- PeerJ
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Using eye tracking to support professional learning in vision-intensive professions: a case of aviation pilots (2024)
- Education and Information Technologies
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Clustering and Structural Robustness in Causal Diagrams (2023)
- Journal of Machine Learning Research
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - dynamite: Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference for Multivariate Longitudinal Data (2023) Tikka, Santtu; Helske, Jouni
(I2 ICT program or software application ) - Estimating the causal effect of timing on the reach of social media posts (2023)
- Statistical Methods and Applications
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine (2022)
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Efficient Bayesian generalized linear models with time-varying coefficients : The walker package in R (2022)
- SoftwareX
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - A nonlinear mixed model approach to predict energy expenditure from heart rate (2021)
- Physiological Measurement
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - bssm: Bayesian Inference of Non-linear and Non-Gaussian State Space Models in R (2021)
- The R journal
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal) - Can visualization alleviate dichotomous thinking Effects of visual representations on the cliff effect (2021)
- IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics
(A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal)



