A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Forces pushing forward or holding back? Drivers of cultured meat transition in Southern Africa up to 2070 through a Real-Time Delphi study; 
Authors: Nhokovedzo, Simbarashe; Tapio, Petri; Mushayavanhu, Tawanda Prosper; Ndhlovu, Emmanuel; Chiwaya, Kudakwashe
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Publication year: 2026
Journal: Cleaner and responsible consumption
Article number: 100456
Volume: 22
eISSN: 2666-7843
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clrc.2026.100456
Publication's open availability at the time of reporting: Open Access
Publication channel's open availability : Open Access publication channel
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clrc.2026.100456
Self-archived copy’s web address: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/526963823
Self-archived copy's licence: CC BY
Self-archived copy's version: Publisher`s PDF
Additional information: Data will be made available on request.
Cultured meat, or lab-grown meat, is an emerging alternative protein gaining increasing attention in food sustainability discussions. However, its transition dynamics in developing regions such as Southern Africa remain underexplored. While futures studies commonly identify drivers of change, it often gives limited methodological attention to how these drivers are assessed. This study addresses this gap by integrating Real-Time Delphi (RTD) and Force Field Analysis (FFA) to evaluate the relative influence of drivers shaping the cultured meat transition in Southern Africa over 45 years, covering 2025 to 2070. Data was collected from 30 experts (n = 30), from 10 countries using the 4CF Halynx 2.0 platform. Four driver categories emerged i.e., production, consumption, mrga-blueprints, and 4th Industrial Revolution Technologies & their higher version (4IRTs+). The findings indicate that all driver categories exhibit a positive net force, suggesting an overall directional momentum towards transition. However, high levels of expert divergence highlight significant complexity and uncertainty regarding the feasibility, pace of transition, and socio-cultural acceptance. Key enabling drivers include population growth, urbanisation, climate change, food insecurity, and 4IRTs+. Socio-cultural dynamics, regulatory complexities, and higher comparative prices of cultured meat to conventional meat were identified as inhibitors. The study advances futures studies methodology by demonstrating how the combination of RTD and FFA enables clearer quantification and qualification of driver directionality, though with reservations concerning potential over mathematisation of uncertain futures. Theoretically, the study moves beyond descriptive mapping of change drivers by embedding transition analytic theories. Policy implications point to adaptive and transparent regulatory frameworks, investment in culturally grounded innovations, assimilation of 4IRTs+, investment in biotechnological and bioprocessing infrastructure if transition is to be attained.
Keywords:
Cultured meat, drivers of change, force field analysis, Real-Time Delphi, Southern Africa
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Funding information in the publication:
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
