A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Long-term decarbonization pathways for Cuba’s electricity sector: a scenario-based analysis to 2050;




AuthorsCasals Cunill, Ernesto Carlos; Masip Rodríguez, Carlos Alberto; Peña Pupo, Leonardo; Lora, Electo Eduardo Silva; Venturini, Osvaldo José; Adeoye, Olasunkanmi Opelowa; Jaén, René Lesme

PublisherElsevier BV

Publication year2026

Journal: Energy Conversion and Management: X

Article number102101

Volume31

eISSN2590-1745

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.102101

Publication's open availability at the time of reportingOpen Access

Publication channel's open availability Open Access publication channel

Web address https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.102101

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/526761678

Self-archived copy's licenceCC BY

Self-archived copy's versionPublisher`s PDF

Research data linkhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.102101


Abstract

The Republic of Cuba faces a critical energy trilemma characterized by severe reliance on imported fossil fuels and an obsolete electricity generation infrastructure. Addressing this challenge, this study evaluates long-term decarbonization pathways exclusively for Cuba’s electricity sector from 2024 to 2050 using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). To improve methodological transparency, LEAP was configured using 2024 as the base year, with demand projections, generation capacity expansion, storage deployment, fuel-price assumptions, technology costs, and emissions factors represented across three scenarios. The assessment formally defines three structural frameworks: a policy-continuity baseline based on current governmental targets, a flexibility-oriented decarbonization pathway, and a 100 % renewable electricity scenario. Results indicate that while the policy-continuity scenario achieves a 35 % renewable generation share, its reliance on a conventional thermal baseload triggers a late-term emissions rebound, peaking at 12.82 million metric tons of CO2-eq by mid-century. Conversely, the flexibility-oriented pathway appears to be the most cost-effective option. By capping thermal capacity at 1,500 MW and deploying large-scale energy storage, it reduces emissions by 67 % to 4.21 million metric tons of CO2-eq and lowers annual production costs by approximately 200 million USD. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses demonstrate this flexible architecture is highly resilient to demand fluctuations. Although the 100 % renewable pathway suggests absolute electricity-sector carbon neutrality is technically achievable, its requirement for a 6,733 MW biomass scale-up introduces major capital and land-use conflicts. Ultimately, this research indicates that deep decarbonization could be an economically advantageous strategy, necessitating a paradigm shift from traditional baseloads toward system flexibility, provided significant external financial barriers can be navigated.


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Funding information in the publication
This work was supported by the Research Support Foundation of the State of Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG); the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher-Level Personnel (CAPES); and the BRICS project: CNPq/FINEP/MCTIC/BRICS STI n◦ 28/2023 – Process 440006/2024–4. In addition, this paper has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No [101205310], M4IEMA project.


Last updated on 07/08/2026 10:41:47 AM