A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination
Authors: van Boven M, Teirlinck AC, Meijer A, Hooiveld M, van Dorp CH, Reeves RM, Campbell H, van der Hoek W; RESCEU Investigators
Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
Publication year: 2020
Journal: Journal of Infectious Diseases
Journal name in source: JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Journal acronym: J INFECT DIS
Volume: 222
Issue: Supplement_7
First page : S688
Last page: S694
Number of pages: 7
ISSN: 0022-1899
eISSN: 1537-6613
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa424(external)
Web address : https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa424(external)
Abstract
Background. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.Methods. Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (20122017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.Results. Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R-0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (>= 65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.Conclusions. Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.
Background. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.Methods. Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (20122017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.Results. Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R-0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (>= 65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.Conclusions. Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.
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