A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Serum biomarker trajectory clusters predict functional outcome and quality of life for traumatic brain injury




AuthorsDo, Thanh Son; Carnes, Chantal; Yang, Zhihui; Kobeissy, Firas; Yadikar, Hamad; Olbricht, Gayla; Tenovuo, Olli; Posti, Jussi P.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Wilson, Lindsay; von Steinbüchel, Nicole; Czeiter, Endre; Buki, Andras; Menon, David K.; Maas, Andrew I. R.; Wang, Kevin K.; Obafemi-Ajayi, Tayo

PublisherOxford University Press (OUP)

Publication year2026

Journal: Brain Communications

Article numberfcag055

Volume8

Issue2

eISSN2632-1297

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1093/braincomms/fcag055

Publication's open availability at the time of reportingOpen Access

Publication channel's open availability Open Access publication channel

Web address https://doi.org/10.1093/braincomms/fcag055

Self-archived copy’s web addresshttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/516142920

Self-archived copy's licenceCC BY

Self-archived copy's versionPublisher`s PDF


Abstract

Serum brain-enriched biomarkers are increasingly employed in the clinical evaluation of traumatic brain injury (TBI) to assist with triage, neuroimaging decisions, and prognostication. However, the potential of temporal biomarker trajectories to inform disease monitoring and long-term outcomes remains underexplored. We aim to identify distinct biomarker trajectory (TRAJ) profiles in traumatic brain injury patients and to examine their associations with long-term clinical outcomes. The study included 373, CT-positive Intensive Care Unit (ICU) traumatic brain injury patients (256 with initial Glasgow Coma Scale 3–12) from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI (CENTER-TBI) core study who had at least two serum samples collected between days 1 and 5 post-injury. Six biomarkers -glial fibrillary acidic protein, ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolase-L1, neurofilament light chain, Tau, S100B, and neuron-specific enolase- were analysed. Optimal cluster solutions were determined using a composite validation index derived from seven internal clustering metrics. Distinct high and low trajectory classes emerged for all biomarkers; each comprising at least 40% of the cohort for five of the biomarkers. Cross-biomarker concordance analysis identified composite high (n = 104) and low (n = 110) TRAJ profiles. Key metrics for evaluating patient outcomes include Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), mortality, and Quality of Life after Brain Injury Overall Scale (QoLIBRI-OS) at 3, 6, and 12 months as well as a prognostic incremental value analysis using a conventional prediction model: International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT). High TRAJ membership is strongly associated with poor functional recovery (GOSE 1–4 at 3–12 months; odds ratio (OR) 8.79 [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.56-16.97]—12.29 [95%CI: 6.19–24.40], P < 0.001) and increased 180-day mortality (OR (14.84 [95%CI: 5.56–39.64], P < 0.001). Conversely, low TRAJ membership predicted favourable recovery (GOSE 6–8 at 3–12 months; OR 7.42 [95%CI: 3.10–17.76]—10.83 [95%CI: 3.65–32.14], P < 0.001) and better quality of life (QoLIBRI-OS ≥52; OR 4.98 [95%CI: 1.92–12.89], P < 0.01). Compared to single day-1 biomarker measurements, trajectory-based profiles yielded larger effect sizes and provided incremental prognostic value when added to the IMPACT prediction model (ΔR² 9–17%, P < 0.05). Overall, repeated biomarker measurements across the acute phase yield superior prognostic accuracy relative to single timepoint assessments. These findings underscore the importance of integrating longitudinal biomarker monitoring into ICU-based traumatic brain injury care and suggest that temporal trajectory profiling may improve prognostic modelling and facilitate more precise patient stratification for both clinical management and interventional studies.


Downloadable publication

This is an electronic reprint of the original article.
This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Please cite the original version.




Funding information in the publication
This project is funded by European Commission Seventh Framework Programme, JPP is supported by the Research Council of Finland, and the Sigrid Jusélius Foundation.


Last updated on 02/04/2026 10:23:11 AM