A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Long-term equity investing and withdrawal rules
Tekijät: Antell, Jan; Vaihekoski, Mika
Julkaisuvuosi: 2026
Lehti: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management
ISSN: 1934-4554
eISSN: 2373-8529
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-026-00492-1
Julkaisun avoimuus kirjaamishetkellä: Avoimesti saatavilla
Julkaisukanavan avoimuus : Osittain avoin julkaisukanava
Verkko-osoite: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-026-00492-1
Rinnakkaistallenteen osoite: https://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/515506746
Rinnakkaistallenteen lisenssi: CC BY
Rinnakkaistallennetun julkaisun versio: Kustantajan versio
This paper provides evidence on the outcomes of several different withdrawal policies for a long-term equity investor with a motive to preserve the real value of their assets and maximize withdrawals. Using data for the US and Finnish stock markets from 1913 to 2023, we find that historically, the maximum endowment-preserving withdrawal rates would have been 10.95% and 1.83% of the initial investment at the end of 1912 for the US and Finland, respectively. The maximum withdrawal rate varies with the timing of the initial investment. The average maximum withdrawal rate over the first 100 years is 7.79% for the USA and 6.63% for Finland. A rearview look shows that following a rule where the withdrawal is a given fixed rate of the nominal value of the portfolio, all the while either disallowing reductions in nominal withdrawals (Finland) or keeping them at least 90% level of the previous nominal withdrawal (USA), would have historically provided the highest average withdrawals in real terms. Looking forward, both countries offer withdrawal rates of four or even 5% with reasonable risk if one allows withdrawals to be adjusted for stock market development.
Ladattava julkaisu This is an electronic reprint of the original article. |
Julkaisussa olevat rahoitustiedot:
Open Access funding provided by University of Turku (including Turku University Central Hospital).