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Bayesian Inference for Predicting the Monetization Percentage in Free-to-Play Games




TekijätNumminen Riikka, Viljanen Markus Juhani, Pahikkala Tapio

KustantajaInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

Julkaisuvuosi2022

JournalIEEE Transactions on Games

Vuosikerta14

Numero1

Aloitussivu13

Lopetussivu22

eISSN2475-1510

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1109/TG.2020.3014660

Rinnakkaistallenteen osoitehttps://research.utu.fi/converis/portal/detail/Publication/51115088


Tiivistelmä

Free-to-play has become one of the most popular monetization models, and as a consequence game developers need to get the players to purchase in the game instead of getting players to buy the game. Game analytics and player monetization prediction are important parts in estimating the profitability of a free-to-play game. In this paper, we concentrate on predicting the fraction of monetizing players among all players. Our method is based on a survival analysis mixture cure model, and can be applied to unlabeled data collected from any free-to-play game. We formulate a statistical model and use the Expectation Maximization algorithm to solve the latent monetization percentage and the monetization rate. The original method is modified by using Bayesian inference, and the results of the versions are compared. The method can be applied as a preliminary profitability study in situations where there is no extensive historical game data available, such as game and business development scenarios that need to utilize real time analytics. Index Terms—Bayesian Inference, Free-to-play, Monetization, Survival Analysis


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